Cleat Geeks

ADP Starting Line; Round 4

Happy Saturday! It’s June 30th which means it’s basically July and officially fantasy draft prep season…Which means most of you are starting to tune into your favorite fantasy football podcasts and do some casual reading to prep for your August drafts. Every Friday (publishers note here, I was late in publishing this article therefore you have the reflected changes made, but it will be every Friday from now on) through July and August I’ll be discussing some of the players to grab in your upcoming drafts.

I’m assuming that most of you will have already made some easy decisions; grabbing some combination of reliable RBs and WRs in rounds 1-3. So, for this first installation, I’m addressing picks during the 4th round.

For the sake of being transparent, the scoring format I’m using is based on basic PPR scoring with 4pt passing TDs in a redraft style league.  All ADP information is available on www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com. So, without further adieu, let’s begin….

The ADP on www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com reflects the 4th round as follows:

Image result for derrius guice

Photo by; FootballGuys

4.01 Derrius Guice

He has a great opportunity to be an RB2; however, I tend to prefer a more known quantity this early.  

4.02 Alex Collins

I’m struggling with Collins here. It just feels too early for him. His in division match-ups are definitely not pushovers and I just don’t trust the Ravens offense.

4.03 Aaron Rodgers

I prefer to take QBs a bit later but it’s hard to argue with the idea of having a positional advantage week in and week out.

4.04 Zach Ertz

Similar to Rodgers, Ertz provides a positional advantage more weeks than not; however, I’d be more inclined to take a RB or WR here.  

Image result for allen robinson bears

4.05 Allen Robinson

Coming off of a torn ACL, it’s hard to know if we’re getting the ARob we saw in 2015 or some lesser version of him.  Trubisky isn’t a fully finished product either and that could cap his value.

4.06 Jay Ajayi

His knees are a timebomb but Philly has the weapons to manage his reps and maximize his efficiency. I like him over Collins and Guice in the 4th.

4.07 Demaryius Thomas

DT is starting to see more love as his ADP has lifted out of the 5th round in the last month.  Even with a new QB, I tend to prefer Amari Cooper in a bounce-back year over the 30-year-old Thomas.

4.08 Kenyan Drake

After a great 2nd half of 2017, it seems a lot of people are bearish on Drake which surprises me.  Being more Bull-ish than most, I’d roll with him confidently as early as 4.01.

4.09 Ju Ju Smith Schuster

AB is still the guy to own in Pittsburgh and despite the flashes, we saw in 2017 it’s hard for me to draft a guy this early who isn’t a #1 on his own team.

4.10 Amari Cooper

No more Crabtree means Cooper is the clear #1 WR and his volume will reflect that. Cooper should be picked ahead of DT, ARob, and Ertz.

Image result for deshaun watson

Photo by; ClutchPoints

4.11 Deshaun Watson

Coming off of an ACL injury that ended his 2017 campaign early, Watson is incredibly dynamic; however, this is early for a guy who has yet to make it through a full season. I would advise sticking with a position player here.  Besides, if you’re picking at 4.11 you could easily grab Watson, Brady, or Wentz at 5.02 or 6.11.

4.12 Sony Michel

Don’t fall for the Beli-tricks, this is too early for any Patriots back.  There are too many guys in this backfield and it will make Michel’s usage hard to count on for a 4th rd pick.  I’d feel much better about Ronald Jones here.

The 4th round is where drafters start to make their money so attention to roster construction and bye weeks comes into play as you fill out your starting lineup.  The most important thing here is to get players that can start for you every week and on some level provide a positional advantage more weeks than not. Below are some situations and some players that would make solid targets at this point in the draft.  

The situations are labeled in the order they were drafted i.e RB/WR/RB = RB in RD1, WR in Rd2, and RB in Rd 3.

RB/RB/WR

Need to go WR here – Amari Cooper is my guy.  A lot of folks are down on him after a poor showing in 2017 but really that whole offense had an off year.  Let’s call it a mulligan for Cooper and remember that his pedigree, experience, and skill set makes him a legit WR2 in most formats.   

WR/WR/RB

The RB field starts thinning out in rounds 4-6 – I’d be inclined to grab Kenyan Drake as my RB2.  He’ll see most of the work in Miami even with them adding the ageless Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage.  Strategically speaking, you might be able to grab another lower end RB2 in Round 5 if you can grab Amari Cooper as your WR3…Assuming you land Ronald Jones in round 5 or maybe CJ Anderson later you would have a major advantage in your flex/WR3 spot…but you would be thin at RB and likely making a trade by week 4.  

RB/WR/RB or WR/RB/WR

Going for positional advantages here – My favorite WR and RB (as you’ve probably noticed) are Amari Cooper and Kenyan Drake but if you’re picking in the back half of the 4th round, Aaron Rodgers and Zach Ertz should also be in consideration.  

As always, I hope this helps you build your draft plan and keeps you from being caught off guard when you’re on the clock.  Next week, we’ll cover the 5th round. Until then, happy drafting!

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