Cleat Geeks

SABERmetircs Sunday: Jake Arrieta’s Value

Happy off-season baseball fans! There is some time before the Winter meetings, but there will certainly be a lot of speculation until then as to what kind of moves teams will make. The free agent class is not huge, but there are several notable names on the market. Jake Arrieta is one of the top-three free agents this off-season and is expected to get a big deal from someone.

Arrieta (31) spent his last four and a half seasons with the Chicago Cubs where he developed into one of the National League’s best. He was traded to Chicago from Baltimore, where he struggled to start his career, in 2013. Since then he has become an All Star pitcher, World Champion and was the 2015 NL Cy Young winner. With the Cubs trying to move forward with younger arms in the rotation, there are extreme doubts they offer Arrieta the inevitable $100+ million deal he will get.

While he had an up-and down 2017, it is important to look at his numbers over the past few years and his numbers in 2017.

Image result for jake arrieta cubs

2013-2017 (all with Chicago) 

3.16 FIP / 1.034 WHIP / 0.7 HR-9 / 2.7 BB-9 / 8.9 K-9 / 793 Strikeouts / 18.6 fWAR in 803.0 innings

2015 Cy Young season

2.35 FIP / 0.86 WHIP / 0.39 HR-9 / 1.89 BB-9 / 9.28 K-9 / 236 Strikeouts / 7.3 fWAR in 229.0 innings

2017 splits 

1st half: 4.18 FIP / 1.30 WHIP / 1.24 HR-9 / 3.11 BB-9 / 9.06 K-9 / 102 Strikeouts in 101.1 innings 

2nd half: 4.11 FIP / 1.09 WHIP / 1.21 HR-0 / 2.69 BB-9 / 8.19 K-9 / 61 Strikeouts in 67.0 innings

It is safe to say everyone knows that Arrieta will not repeat his 2015 Cy Young season, that was historical. But overall still has been pretty good the past few years. He has had some struggles at times with his command, and last year saw a spike in home runs given up. Last year his first half was full of home runs and walks, despite still high strikeout numbers. In the second half his strikeout numbers went down a little, but so did the walks as his WHIP was improved. Arrieta used a bit more of a “soft contract” approach, while his strikeout numbers were still solid, in the 2nd half and was a bit more effective.

Image result for jake arrieta cubs

Is Arrieta still talented? Yes. Is he likely going to pitch like he did from 2014-2016? Probably not. Either way his agent Scott Boras will get him his payday somewhere. He can be a very strong asset with whichever team he goes to, but it is a bit more risky with him being over 30 and seeking possibly five years.

Leave a Reply


If you like this site or just simply want to school your friends because you got the information first.  

Join us on the field! Click on any of the links below.

%d bloggers like this: