Cleat Geeks

My Baseball Predictions Report Card

As football comes into season, hopefully you’re still in the playoffs looking at a potential fantasy baseball title. Throughout the season I’ve given various advice and suggestions here on cleatgeeks, and on twitter @baseballalan where I have several #bbalanpredicts posts. But I always hate when writers make “bold” suggestions and keep it under the rug when they’re wrong. So today, we’re going to go over some of my predictions and see where I was right, and where I made myself look like a moron.

I’m going to keep it mostly to the bigger names, but if you’d like to check out the rest of my predictions, you can look through my articles here on cleatgeeks, or go through my twitter and search for #bbalanpredicts.

Polanco was being drafted at an absurd price; right around 50, where analysts were predicting he would turn into a 30hr/20 steal sort of guy hitting around .280. Polanco is a notoriously streaky player, so I wasn’t buying it. He’s currently nearing the end of his season at .255 10/8. He’s been limited to around 360 abs so far so he’s on pace to be fairly close to my prediction, so I’m counting this one as a win, as if anything, I may have been too gentle with my criticism.

Mookie Betts was being drafted as a top 3 player. With the loss off Ortiz, and the league adjustment to a new young star, I knew this wouldn’t last. As I predicted, he would still be very serviceable, but with a .262 18/23 line, it’s clear that if you took him in the top 5, your team was badly hurt, and missed on some great talent.

Alright, alright. As promised, I’m not just going to brag. I’m also going to rub my nose in the doo doo. So here’s some bad ones from a list I made of my top 10 late round picks. I gave some late round value players that I thought could really boost your team. Some worked out well, and some turned into steaming garbage. Who could I have missed?

Napster had a great history with Texas, and even though I didn’t actually expect him to repeat his glory days exactly, he’s having the worst season of his career. This one’s been one of those farts, you accidentally let out and then realize the whole room can smell it.

Liriano is my Stanley Kowalski. My abusive Marlon Brando who always calls to me. “STELLA!!” Except his performance won’t win you any awards. D$*N IT LIRIANO! Every time he seems to figure something out, he kicks you right where it hurts, and you have no idea why. After seeming to figure things out in Torronto last year, he goes right back to being his frustrating self.

And finally…

My number one suggestion on my “top 10 late round pickups”, and he blew it. BLEW IT! Had a great start to the majors last year but never carried it over this year. The location seemed to be a great place where nearly all their youngsters throw it nasty, and the only question is health. Gsellman from the very beginning of the year though never found his way to being one of the awesome guys who’d eventually get hurt.

Okay, back to some more wins…

He’s had troubles lately, but there’s no denying that Holland has been an elite closer most of the year.

Probably my best prediction of the batch and most. I wasn’t hearing anyone talk about Shaw despite being a lefty in a lefty heaven in Milwaukee. While the year isn’t finished, Shaw is currently at 29 hrs with a .276 ba. which even with a few more weeks, is a lock to be very close to the prediction I made. Despite all the unexpected breakouts from players around the league, it’s impossible to deny, Shaw has been one of the best value hitters for most of the year, and if you grabbed him in the late rounds or (quite possible) from free agency, he’s probably helped you get into playoff contention.

Other notable writeups have been Aaron Judge, Bellinger and Sonny Gray. I called for a resurgence of Gray, and so far he’s been just what I’d hoped for. After making some adjustments and getting healthy, he seems once again to be a very formidable arm.

Judge and Bellinger have been a mixed bag. I made criticisms of both of them. I also predicted Judge would slow down, but still hit for power, while Bellinger I assumed would stop hitting in the 2nd half. While Judge definitely has slowed down to an alarming degree, Bellinger has been fairly reliable. While he was initially cold, he did have a hot streak last month. So Bellinger’s been basically the same so we’ll call this two 1 win and 1 loss.


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