Cleat Geeks

Football Fantasy Strategy; QB’s

I am a numbers guy when it comes to sports in general. I am more of a saber-metrics guy when I watch sports. I love the numbers, and I love to research the numbers. If you like the same, keep reading and look at fantasy football not by the teams they play for or the numbers on their back, but the real numbers they produce.

NflQBs1Quarterback Overall– 2015 was a record setting year for quarterbacks overall as a group they set records for total passes with 18,284, completions with 11,519, total yards with 132,563 and touchdowns with 840. As you are reading this you are probably thinking to yourself that I am now going to tell you that choosing the correct quarterback is paramount in winning your fantasy league. Let me give you one more stat, the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks tied for the all-time high with 334 passing scores. Did you read the last stat all the way, the top 10. If you drafted a top 10 quarterback last year, all you saw was an average of 2 points between them in any given game. Therefore the fantasy strategy for quarterbacks is simple. Get a starting quarterback in the top 10. Then either get a serviceable back-up or take a chance on one with a ton of upside, and if he does not pan out pick up a serviceable one the week before your starting quarterback has his bye week.

I Don’t Really Pay Attention To Rankings Per Say. I react and adapt to the draft and the other people in the draft. Hence the name of this article is draft strategy, not best, worst, or top 10 rankings. I look at each position and rank them by the way the draft is going. In other words, I react and adapt to the other people I am drafting with. But what I do pay attention to are certain facts and numbers with every position. That is why I divided this article up in a series by positions. The other thing you need to pay attention to is how your league is scored by position. Now, let me show you what I mean by giving you 10 quarterbacks and ten facts about them, some good, some bad to consider when you draft them.

BlakeBortles2Blake Bortles– Only Tom Brady had more touchdown passes than Blake Bortles. He also has 2 1,000 yard receivers returning for this upcoming season in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns.

 

Kirk Cousins– Cousins led NFL starting quarterbacks in completion percentage last year.

 

Jay Cutler– Cultler averaged multiple touchdown passes in only seven games last season. If your league scores touchdowns, then you do not want to score Cutler on draft day, or any other day.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick– Only 4 quarterbacks threw more interceptions last year than he did. While he did throw over 30 touchdowns with 31, he also threw 15 interceptions. If your league takes points away for interceptions, it would be like he only threw 16 touchdown passes all season.

 

Joe Flacco– Before Flacco went down to injury in week 10, he quietly was on pace to throw for 4,466 yards and 22 touchdowns.

 

EliManning2Eli Manning– He set career highs in the following categories last season; attempts, completions, and touchdown passes. His ground game was mediocre at best last season, and they did nothing to address that problem in the off-season. Therefore, if they are going to score, it is going to be with the arm of Eli.

 

Cam Newton– He will more than likely be the first quarterback chosen in most drafts. That is not to say his numbers say he is the best, but he did set an NFL record as the first quarterback in history to throw for 30 touchdowns and run for 10 more.

 

Matt Ryan– Last year Ryan had his lowest number of touchdowns since his rookie season. His 16 interceptions (see Ryan Fitzpatrick above) was 1 away fro his career-worst total and he lost a career-high 5 fumbles. You can say he is slipping, or you can say if he slips down in your draft he is going to improve and take a chance on him.

 

Tyrod-Taylor1Ryan Tannehill– Ryan did have a career high in passing yards, a deeper look into his numbers will show that almost all of his other numbers went down though. Look at how your quarterbacks are scored before you try to win with him.

 

Tyrod Taylor– This will be a make or break year for the Bills, and Taylor will have a substantial effect on either make or break. He was a former Raven’s back-up who fought to win the starting job, and now, with his new contract is getting paid like a top starter. But, can he perform like one? Last year he amassed a career high in passing numbers, which sounds good until you read the previous sentences. But, he did finish 2nd among all quarterbacks in rushing carries and forth in rushing touchdowns. He had 553 rushing yards, a total of 32 touchdowns with just over 4,000 total yards, but only 1 game where he threw for over 300 yards.

 

My Deciding Statistic– I believe every “numbers person” must have a deciding statistic. A statistic that use use as a tie breaker. For me that stat for quarterbacks is number of 300+ yard games. If, as a quarterback, you throw for 300 or more yards you are going to give your owner points no matter what. So here are the quarterbacks who threw for 300+ yards 5 times last season; Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco (in only 10 games). Two quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards 6 times they are Derek Carr and Blake Bortles. Three quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards 7 times Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, and in only 12 games Ben Roethlisberger. Philip Rivers threw for 300+ yards 8 times last year and both Drew Brees and Carson Palmer threw for 300 or more yards 9 times.

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