Cleat Geeks

5 NFL Wide Receivers Being Drafted Too Low

5 Players Being Drafted Too High and Too Low (Too Low-WR Edition)

We can all wake up now. Our hibernation is over. Football is back. More importantly, fantasy football is back. I feel like the start of July officially marked the beginning of fantasy football draft season. Very few leagues have actually done their draft so it’s hard to get a sense of players ADP(average draft position) but that’s where MFL10s come into play. For those that don’t know what an MFL10 is, basically they are drafts where you have 8 hours to make each pick. There’s PPR scoring with a starting lineup of 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 Flex 1 TE 1 Defense. You just draft your team and each week your best possible lineup is automatically used so it’s very low maintenance. This is late July so you can expect these drafts to be filled with sharp people that are obsessed with fantasy football. This creates very useful ADPs. I’ll only use drafts that started after June 15th to truly portray the current trends going on right now. This will be a continuing series of players who are being drafted to high and to low. All the “Highs” will be published on Thursdays and the “Lows” will be published on Sundays. We will do QB’s, RB’s, WR’s, and TE’s over the next 4 weeks. Here it goes.MikeEvans2

 5 WRs Being Drafted Too Low

  1. Mike Evans, TB. ADP: 17.61 (WR10).

Evans had more than double the amount of targets than the second most on the team last year, yet he didn’t even lead the team in touchdowns which was a measly 4. It’s incredible the touchdown rate he had last year and it’s not like he just is the type of player that doesn’t score touchdowns. He’s the perfect big bodied red zone threat standing at 6ft. 5in. and around 230 pounds. In his final year in college he had 12 touchdowns and had another 12 as a rookie in the NFL. There’s no reason to think that he won’t regress back to his rookie year touchdown rate. Then you look at the volume he had last year. He was top 10 in targets even after only really starting the season in Week 3 as well as top 11 in receiving yards. It would be expected that a full healthy season would have resulted in about a top 15 fantasy performance. That’s what I expect his floor to be around this season but what I really will be drafting him for is his upside. Evans looks like he’ll be going into this year healthy. He’ll have a whole off-season with Winston to build that chemistry even more. Don’t forget the fact that he is one of the leading candidates in the NFL for stat regression to the mean. I really think with the volume he’s gotten the last two years and what he should get this year, Evans will finish as a top 5 receiver this year.

Photo by; Joe Amon, The Denver Post

Photo by; Joe Amon, The Denver Post

 

2. Demaryius Thomas, Den. ADP: 25.37 (WR16)

People are overreacting to the QB situation in Denver. Mark Sanchez is not a bad NFL QB and he can’t be much worse than they had last year. When you draft Thomas, you are drafting a WR with incredible volume. Even if he can’t do much with it due to his QB, he would still meet value at his ADP because of his immense volume alone. He was the #11 WR in PPR last year. This was with whatever Denver had at QB last year. Denver had the 28th most passing TDs last year. No, I don’t think that they will rank very high this year but they can’t get much worse. He produced in one of the worst situations last year so why can’t he equal that production in a situation that should be the same if not better. They’ve got the same coach in Kubiak who allowed Thomas to get 176 targets.  If he became even a little bit more efficient or was a little luckier than last season in regards to TDs, then he would easily be a top 10 WR if not top 5. His combination of high floor and high ceiling makes him a steal in the 3rd round.

 

  1. Marvin Jones, Det. ADP: 72.66 (WR37).

MarvinJonesDetroitJones is being tasked with the difficult job of replacing Calvin Johnson. For years, Stafford relied on Megatron to be his deep threat and red-zone beast. Now that Johnson is retired someone needs to be that guy and Jones is the only one that fits that mold. Golden Tate is the exact opposite of that. He’s a smaller possession type receiver. We’re already hearing reports from camp that Jones has been making deep plays and Stafford even mentioned how they are working on their chemistry. If he does take hold of that role then let’s look at what type of work he would receive. Stafford actually threw the most passing touchdowns from within the 10 yard line, 21 TDs. Jones excels in the red-zone and should get a good portion of those touchdowns. Then you look at the Lions big passing plays. They ranked 10th worst in the league in number of pass plays 25 yards or more. This is really uncharacteristic of the Lions as they had been in the top half of the league the 3 previous years but it can be attributed to Johnson’s declined speed and success in the deep passing game. So far in camp, Jones has been the overwhelmingly best deep threat. Jones has a monstrous ceiling and at his mere price of WR37, he’s an autopick.

 

  1. Torrey Smith, SF. ADP: 81.42 (WR41).torrey-smith-week-7

Torrey Smith has been making a career off of being a deep threat. It didn’t work last year but it wasn’t because he played badly. Just ask Matt Harmon who charted him in his Reception Perception and came to the conclusion that he still played good last year. The problem has been the offense he’s played it. Chip Kelly can do wonders for an offense in terms of fantasy production. Just ask the #1 receiver in Kelly’s offense the last 3 seasons who have finished as the WR20, WR9, and WR10. Even if you don’t think Smith is the same type of quality as Matthews, Maclin, and Jackson, he should still greatly exceed his ADP of WR41. The sky’s the limit for Smith in Kelly’s offense and at his price I’m more than willing to take a shot.

 

  1. Kamar Aiken, Bal. ADP: 98.43 (WR46).

KamarAikenThe Baltimore offense is wide open right now. There’s no clear lead receiver at this point but whoever takes that role should have a good fantasy season in a pass heavy offense. Steve Smith started off great last year but his injury might just be too much to overcome. He already said the reason he’s coming back is to get to 1,000 catches so it doesn’t look like he’s really committed to being a big part of that offense. Then there’s Breshad Perriman who still hasn’t played a snap in the NFL. After that is the newly acquired Mike Wallace who is a good deep threat but certainly can’t be relied on as a #1 receiver. That only leaves Kamar Aiken. As you can probably I really value Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception and again his evaluation makes me really optimistic. He actually became a high volume player after Week 7 last season averaging over 6 receptions and over 75 receiving yards per game. The only problem is, most of that production was without Flacco at quarter back. There’s no guarantee that Aiken continues to be the #1 guy this year but I think his quality will put him there. Last year was the first year in Flacco’s career that his top receiver didn’t finish in the top 25 of fantasy wide receivers. If Aiken takes the job, I think he’ll continue that trend and greatly exceed his ADP.

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