Cleat Geeks

5 NFL Quarterbacks Being Drafted Too Low


5 Players Being Drafted Too High and Too Low (Too Low-QB Edition)

We can all wake up now. Our hibernation is over. Football is back. More importantly, fantasy football is back. I feel like the start of July officially marked the beginning of fantasy football draft season. Very few leagues have actually done their draft so it’s hard to get a sense of players ADP(average draft position) but that’s where MFL10’s come into play. For those that don’t know what an MFL10 is, basically they are drafts where you have 8 hours to make each pick. There’s PPR scoring with a starting lineup of 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 Flex 1 TE 1 Defense. You just draft your team and each week your best possible lineup is automatically used so it’s very low maintenance. This is late July so you can expect these drafts to be filled with sharp people that are obsessed with fantasy football. This creates very useful ADPs. I’ll only use drafts that started after June 15th to truly portray the current trends going on right now. This will be a continuing series of players who are being drafted to high and to low. All the “Highs” will be published on Thursdays and the “Lows” will be published on Sundays. We will do QB’s, RB’s, WR’s, and TE’s over the next 4 weeks. Here it goes.


5 QBs Being Drafted Too Low

  1. Carson Palmer, Ari. ADP: 107.18(QB8).

CarsonPalmerI can see how people have them as their 8th ranked QB. I personally have him as my 6th QB but I would put him in a tier with Big Ben, Brady, and Brees so I don’t strongly disagree with his QB8 ADP. What I can’t understand is that Brees is going like 2 rounds before him and the other two are going close to a round above Palmer. He was the QB5 last year only 2 points behind the QB4. Yes he had a great season last year but he’s only going to have a better supporting cast being with one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. Floyd and Brown are both young guys only getting better each season and Larry Fitzgerald showed in the playoffs that he hasn’t lost a step. According to Chris Raybon at, winning QBs average 7 more yards and .64 more touchdowns than losing ones. This team is going to keep winning. Vegas even project them to have the 3rd most wins in the NFL. The running backs going before him aren’t even seen as guaranteed starters in Crowell, Forsett, and Derrick Henry. The receivers going before him seriously lack volume in Green-Beckham and Stefon Diggs.


  1. Matthew Stafford, Det. ADP: 140.90(QB15).

MatthewStaffordLionbackgroundStafford has made a fantasy career on sheer volume and a certain transformer named Megatron. One of those things is no longer in Detroit but Stafford is going to have more volume than ever. The Lions no longer have Joique Bell leaving them with only Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick as running backs. Abdullah fumbled a lot last season and isn’t necessarily a power back. Riddick is a great receiving back so it looks like the Lions are going to be passing a lot even in the red zone. Pass attempts correlate strongly to fantasy points and are one of the more predictable stats of QB so it’s pretty safe to say that Stafford’s floor is high compared to those QBs being drafted ahead of. Also look for Ebron to finally improve his game with a likely increase in targets. Marvin Jones could also prove to be a valuable 2nd receiver option that frees up the field. He’s been playing better and better each season he plays so I wouldn’t expect that to stop in Detroit.  Stafford just offers a much higher floor than the 3 quarterbacks being directly taken in front of.


  1. Andy Dalton, Cin. ADP: 145.83(QB18).

AndyDaltonNoHelmetThe Red Rifle screams value. He’s my 11th ranked QB and I don’t see how he’s the 18th QB off the board. Last season Dalton finished as QB 18…without finishing the last 4 games of the season. If he kept on the pace that he was going he would have finished as QB4. That’s actually insane that guys like Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston are being drafted before him. He has one of the game’s best receivers in AJ Green. Pair him with Eifert and you probably have the best redzone receiver pairing in the NFL. Eifert may not be ready for the start of the season but Dalton did fine in the one game he didn’t have Eifert last season scoring 23 points, albeit was a small sample size. Even if you predict Dalton to have a good bit of regression, there’s no chance he doesn’t meet his current ADP value.



  1. Joe Flacco, Bal. ADP: 166.43(QB22).JoeFlacoCenter

Flacco only played 10 games last year so his end of season rank of QB 26 doesn’t truly show how well he played fantasy wise. If you add all of Baltimore’s QB points up you end up with the QB 17. This was in a down year for the Ravens as a whole. While Flacco did play poorly last year, you can still expect him to score as many points as his backups did filling in for him if not even more than them. I look for Flacco to have a bounce back year with the return of Steve Smith, the NFL virgin Breshad Perriman, and the continued connection with Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception favorite Kamar Aiken. Baltimore’s run game is nonexistent plus their pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Look for the Ravens to have even more shootouts next year with them projected to be in a good bit of close games.  Even if he doesn’t bounce back and play better, a healthy season should mean he exceeds his QB 22 value.MarkSanchezBroncos2


  1. Mark Sanchez, Den. ADP: 218.51(QB37).

He is a starter. He is on a good team. What more is there to say? Buttfumble is not a good QB. He doesn’t need to be. He just needs to be enough and he usually is. His only competition is Paxton Lynch whose main concern was that he wasn’t polished and NFL ready. I find it hard to believe that Lynch takes that starting job and as long as Sanchez gets those snaps, he will produce. You take the immense value of a serviceable starting QB as the 37th QB off the board and you run with it. Even if he does somehow lose his starting job, you spent minimal draft capital on him would have been used on a no name backup tight end.

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