Cleat Geeks

5 NFL Quarterbacks Being Drafted To High

We can all wake up now. Our hibernation is over. Football is back. More importantly, fantasy football is back. I feel like the start of July officially marked the beginning of fantasy football draft season. Very few leagues have actually done their draft so it’s hard to get a sense of players ADP(average draft position) but that’s where MFL10s come into play. For those that don’t know what an MFL10 is, basically they are drafts where you have 8 hours to make each pick. There’s PPR scoring with a starting lineup of 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 Flex 1 TE 1 Defense. You just draft your team and each week your best possible lineup is automatically used so it’s very low maintenance. This is late July so you can expect these drafts to be filled with sharp people that are obsessed with fantasy football. This creates very useful ADPs. I’ll only use drafts that started after June 15th to truly portray the current trends going on right now. This will be a continuing series of players who are being drafted to high and to low. All the “Highs” will be published on Thursdays and the “Lows” will be published on Sundays. We will do QB’s, RB’s, WR’s, and TE’s over the next 4 weeks. Here it goes.

5 QBs Being Drafted Too High

  1. Cam Newton, Car. ADP: 47.18 (QB1).

cam-newtonLook, I agree that he had an incredible season. Nobody can doubt that but there were reasons he was drafted so late last year. His offensive line is not elite. They played above themselves and finished as PFF’s 2nd ranked offensive line last season which doesn’t necessarily guarantee that they can’t do the same, but I wouldn’t expect it. Cam finished with the 9th best QBR in the league last year which seems pretty good but QBR does take into account rushing but doesn’t factor in strength of schedule which Carolina had one of the easiest. Cam Newton was not as good as his fantasy performance made it seem. Expect his rushing and passing touchdowns to both regress to the mean which really makes it hard for him to repeat his fantasy performance from last year. With Aaron Rodgers being drafted after him along with RB2/WR2 Larry Fitzgerald and Latavius Murray, I find it very difficult to take him with that high of draft capital.

 

  1. Blake Bortles, Jac. ADP: 113.30 (QB9).

BlakeBortles2Another guy that had a very strong year last year…at least fantasy wise. Blake Bortles was a bad NFL quarter back last year. He had the 30th ranked QBR last year and repeatedly faced large 2nd half deficits due to his mistakes compounded with a bad defense that ranked 27th in defensive DVOA. He had the 6th most pass attempts in the league last year and I just don’t see that being replicated with the improvements made on defense through the draft and free agency along with the hopeful improvement of Blake Bortles. Their games should be closer than last year which negatively affects the game script for Bortles who was forced to throw last year. He still has one of the best young WR duos in football but the Jags also added an elite goal line back in Chris Ivory. Jacksonville was scared to run inside the opponent’s 10 yard line. Bortles had the most pass attempts from within the 10 in the league which resulted in 19 touchdowns, good for 2nd in the league. With the changes to this team I just don’t see Bortles having nearly the same type of season as last year and I definitely wouldn’t take him over current QB10 Eli Manning and QB11 Phillip Rivers.Kirk-Cousins-2

 

  1. Kirk Cousins, Was. ADP: 130.78(QB12).

Washington has quietly put together a very good receiving corps for Kirk Cousins. Jordan Reed is a true beast and it seems like Cousins has really found a connection with him. Yes, Cousins could have very good season but is that really because of him or is it the team he is on. Cousins is a mediocre QB and has been his whole career. He is the starter because RG3 and Colt McCoy are bad not because he is good. His success is tied to one injury prone player in Jordan Reed. If Reed goes down, so does Cousins. What happens when an average QB loses his elite receiver? He has an average season. I will not take a guy that needs to play above his own skill level plus have a healthy Jordan Reed all season just to return the value you draft him at. He is being drafted based on his ceiling. I believe that proven QBs going after him like Stafford and Dalton not only have a higher floor, but still have a higher ceiling.

 

  1. Derek Carr, Oak. ADP: 132.47(QB13)

derekcarr1Blake Bortles Lite. 2 very good wide receivers. 26th  best QBR. Losing record. The thing is he’s not really discounted. Only 3 QBs separate them and what’s worse is that Blake Bortles is being drafted way to early making Derek Carr at this price just as bad. Many people believe that Oakland will be very competitive this year and I’m on board with that but I think that by being better they will make their games much closer. Vegas lines also show this trend as they have the Raiders projected for the most pick ‘em games in the NFL. Last year, in games decided by 8 points or less the Raiders ran the ball over 40% of the time while in games decided by more than 8 points they ran it less than 34% of the time. They’ve shown that they trust Carr less in critical situations. Not to mention he started falling off at the end of last season. He averaged over a pick per game after week 9 and only scored 20+ points one time in that same period. He just hasn’t shown the quality to reproduce his QB13 finish from last year with less volume. The volume of Stafford and the quality of Dalton are just more enticing than CarrWinstonHQ

 

  1. Jameis Winston, TB. ADP: 136.84(QB14)

Look I get why he is being drafted this high. He is an immense talent going into his second year where QBs tend to improve but the team does not look like they will be improving this year. Their best pass catching tight end has been getting in trouble with the coaching staff this off-season. Vincent Jackson isn’t getting any younger. Vegas predict them to have the 5th least wins next season. What’s worse is that Dirk Koetter likes to run the ball ranking 9th in run percentage last year and Doug Martin, who is not a guy you want catching the ball, was signed to a huge deal this off-season. This team doesn’t look like it’s going to be any better than last year and Koetter has already shown that he won’t go pass heavy even in a 6 win campaign. There are just way too many questions for Winston to be the 14th QB off the board.

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