Cleat Geeks

Royally Yours; First to Last?

kauffmanStadiumBeing a baseball writer is hard. There are tons of stats and player information, transactions and injury reports. It’s a lot of work. I take great pride in my job here as a CleatGeek. When I made my predictions on the AL Central I was careful to look at all the numbers, sure I knew that I might be wrong on a placement or two but the latest from Baseball Prospectus has me well baffled, as it does others from Twitter

 

Buster Olney wrote an whole article about it, and I only read the free preview if you want to pay the $60 to read it all be my guest, but here it’s free so lets talk about Baseball Prospectus Predictions. Here is the chart for your amusment:
baseballprospectus predictions

American League, ranked by projected (remainder of season) 2016 record

East Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
0 Tampa Bay Rays Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
91 71 713 619 .253 .318 .411 .266 57.8
0 Boston Red Sox Hitters: Feb 14
Pitchers: Jan 1
88 74 735 671 .272 .334 .426 .268 3.8
0 Toronto Blue Jays Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 9
86 76 765 711 .258 .331 .437 .276 20.5
0 New York Yankees Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
85 77 725 686 .252 .322 .409 .261 12.3
0 Baltimore Orioles Hitters: Feb 14
Pitchers: Feb 14
72 90 697 786 .257 .307 .435 .262 -19.1
Central Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
1 Cleveland Indians Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
92 70 714 615 .257 .322 .406 .261 37.2
0 Chicago White Sox Hitters: Feb 14
Pitchers: Feb 10
82 80 697 686 .257 .319 .403 .263 -27.1
0 Detroit Tigers Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Jan 1
79 83 693 716 .265 .323 .409 .264 -31.4
3 Minnesota Twins Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
79 83 685 707 .251 .313 .408 .258 -8.4
0 Kansas City Royals Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
76 86 641 685 .259 .309 .385 .254 20.0
West Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
6 Houston Astros Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 16
88 74 749 683 .250 .314 .426 .266 -2.9
0 Seattle Mariners Hitters: Jan 1
Pitchers: Feb 15
84 78 689 662 .255 .315 .398 .266 9.0
0 Texas Rangers Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
80 82 732 743 .257 .326 .415 .266 -18.5
3 Los Angeles Angels Hitters: Feb 14
Pitchers: Feb 9
75 87 674 727 .255 .317 .396 .264 -5.3
0 Oakland Athletics Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
75 87 669 724 .250 .312 .395 .262 -31.5

National League, ranked by projected (remainder of season) 2016 record

East Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
4 New York Mets Hitters: Feb 16
Pitchers: Feb 16
90 72 677 597 .240 .306 .399 .263 7.8
1 Washington Nationals Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 16
87 75 688 633 .253 .313 .395 .258 -9.6
0 Miami Marlins Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
76 86 643 685 .253 .306 .386 .256 -22.0
0 Atlanta Braves Hitters: Feb 14
Pitchers: Feb 14
68 94 602 721 .248 .305 .363 .248 -20.1
0 Philadelphia Phillies Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Jan 1
65 97 610 765 .241 .292 .381 .244 -46.6
Central Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
3 Chicago Cubs Hitters: Feb 14
Pitchers: Feb 14
92 70 744 644 .246 .322 .419 .268 -4.6
0 Pittsburgh Pirates Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
83 79 681 666 .256 .317 .396 .258 38.0
0 St. Louis Cardinals Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
82 80 671 664 .256 .316 .406 .261 2.2
0 Milwaukee Brewers Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
77 85 687 722 .247 .308 .404 .253 -3.8
0 Cincinnati Reds Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
74 88 675 742 .244 .305 .388 .251 -8.3
West Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG TAv FRAA
0 Los Angeles Dodgers Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Jan 25
94 68 712 592 .254 .320 .413 .268 12.3
0 San Francisco Giants Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
87 75 643 595 .255 .314 .384 .259 42.5
0 Arizona D-backs Hitters: Feb 14
Pitchers: Feb 14
78 84 657 683 .256 .307 .402 .252 4.6
0 San Diego Padres Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 15
77 85 651 692 .247 .302 .386 .250 -5.6
0 Colorado Rockies Hitters: Feb 15
Pitchers: Feb 9
74 88 678 749 .265 .314 .420 .247 -3.5

KauffmanStadiumFireworksI like the idea of metrics so to say, look at numbers, make your predictions, but the problem with looking at numbers is it takes away from the human factor. It is such a problem that when the numbers came out, that BP’s Sam Miller wrote a whole article about how the numbers aren’t everything.

The Royals are a team, and really a testament to baseball, there are times in every team’s history when everything just works, and the team moves like a well oiled machine. Sure, some parts don’t work and you have to remove those part but the machine goes humming along all the way to the World Series. In my prediction even though the other teams had better numbers I couldn’t count out the Royals, let me say it again, they have a TEAM, and the team that went to the World Series is mostly there, and I stand firm in my predictions that they will be in at least the playoffs if not the World Series again. Certainly not LAST PLACE.

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