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What below .500 team will go to the Play-offs?

NFL TEAM LOGOS_001 Update 10-9-14Now that every team has officially made it to the half way point of the season and officially played 8 games (you must consider the bye week), there is an interesting stat should give some fans of lesser teams hope. Over the past 14 seasons, 34 teams have started the 1st half of the year at 4-4 or below only to have rallied in the 2nd half and ultimately have made it to the play-offs. To take that stat a step further, every year since 1987 at least 1 team per year has gone to the half way point of the season with a .500 or worse record and still qualified for the play-offs. Why not take the interesting stat one step further, 16 of those 34 teams not only made it to the play-offs, but won at least 1 play-off game. And for our last further statistical step forward, 16 of those 34 teams had a loosing season the year before.

So who will be this year’s underachieving first half team who ends up making their fan base happy?

Well, let’s start by eliminating some teams from the 2016 equation. Of those 34 teams, all of them had either 3 or 4 wins at the half way point of the season. Which means we can eliminate 7 current teams; the Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Jaguars, Chargers, and Titans.

The other sub .500 teams are; Miami, Indianapolis, Houston, Kansas City, Oakland, Washington, Philadelphia, Chicago, Tampa Bay New Orleans, St. Louis and Seattle.

Let’s assume that in order for these teams to make it to the play-offs, they have to win 6 of their remaining games.

Miami- has 7 games left, 4 of those 7 are against sub .500 teams. But, they are last in a division with the Patriots. Therefore, they are out.HoustonVSindy

Indianapolis and Houston- One of these two teams has to win the division, both are currently, a game under .500 and tied for the division lead. One of these 2 teams will make sure this trend continues this season. But the similarities don’t stop there. They each have 7 games remaining, and each of them play 2 of those 7 games against teams above .500. I am giving the edge to Houston, I think they are peaking at the right time and will continue to grow as the season wears on.1Kansas-City-Chiefs-Oakland-Raiders

Kansas City and Oakland- Both teams are 4-5. Oakland is moving in the right direction but Kansas City is on a 3 game winning streak. KC has scored 29 more points that there opponents, while Oakland has allowed the opposition to score 14 more points this season than they have scored. redskins-eagles-football

Washington and Philadelphia- Much like Indy and Houston, someone has to win this division. It could be the Giants, but it could also be one of these two teams. Much like Oakland and Kansas City I think Washington is moving in the right direction, but like Oakland, Washington has a bad looking statistic as well. They are win less on the road. It is very difficult to have a winning season when you can’t win on the road.

ChicagoBears_logoChicago- I know I sound like a broken record, I like the way Chicago is trending as well. I like there new running back situation, and I think this team is starting to gel well with one another. But, for this season I think it is to late. I think they will finish strong, and be better than we once thought but they have only won 1 home game and they have a very disturbing -35 net points for the season.

Tampa Bay and New Orleans- These 2 teams are a fast elimination for me, they are behind the unbeaten Panthers and the 6-3 Falcons, not to mention that neither team can score enough to keep up with the amount of points there defense is likely to allow.

St. Louis and Seattle- Now I am going to spin the record backwards, both these teams are trending in the wrong direction. Seattle is going to be the trendy pick, and honestly there schedule looks rather easy. But both these teams are suppose to be better than what they are showing, and if they have not shown it by now, I don’t think they will at any time this season.

SB50FootballPredictions- First, I am going to pick Houston to win the NFC South, so that is one. New England, Cincinnati, and Denver will be the other division winners. Pittsburgh will get one Wild Card spot, and because of the weakness of their remaining schedule, Oakland will get the second one. That gives me two under .500 teams so far.

I don’t believe in the Giants, Philly is so bipolar I can’t pick them, so I am going with Washington in the NFC East. That gives me three. Minnesota, Carolina, and Arizona will all be division winners. Green Bay will get one of the Wild Card spots. And even though Atlanta has come back down to Earth the last couple of weeks, I will give them the final AFC Wild Card spot.

So my prediction of which mid-season sub .500 teams will make the play-offs are Houston, Oakland and Washington.

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